A Clean Sweep for the Republicans?

Published:  November 2024

The US Presidential Election race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris took a dramatic turn in the last 24 hours.  Headlines and polls have for months called it a “coin toss” election, and too close to call.  But, as with past elections, the polls seem to have missed the mark.

Over my morning coffee, I watched an entertaining, albeit lengthy, victory speech by Trump in Florida.  Sometimes repetitive (“Make America Great Again” and again) and with a long story about his good friend Elon Musk, Trump was in ebullient form, unsurprisingly.  With 279 electoral votes at the time of writing and projections suggesting he could surpass 300, Trump’s victory is sealed.  Harris’s supporters had already been told to go home, and Trump, alongside his running mate JD Vance, hailed the result as “one of the greatest political comebacks in American history.”

This election was, indeed, make-or-break for Trump.  Court cases delayed until after the election are set to resume soon, with Trump facing charges that include election interference and classified document mishandling.  Legal analysts suggest that a loss could have led to serious jail time.  Now, with his victory, he holds the potential to pardon himself, an unprecedented yet legally contested move.

What’s next?  If history is any guide, we’ll see headline-grabbing news, political clashes, and legal battles ahead.  Trump has promised tax cuts, business deregulation, trade confrontations, and tightened immigration policies.

Meanwhile, markets have remained stable, though Trump’s policy plans pose risks.  At the time of writing, Republicans lead in both the Senate and House, suggesting a “clean sweep.”  This would bolster Trump’s protectionist approach, especially towards China. Yet, with US interest payments already at $3.3 billion per day and Trump’s tax plan projected to add $7.5 trillion to the national debt by 2035, bond markets may be the first to feel the strain.

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